How to track and adjust your calories week by week

Daily weights are noise. Weekly averages are signal. Here is a routine built on that.

Weigh yourself most mornings, average each week, and compare the averages. If the trend matches your goal, change nothing. If it hasn't moved in the right direction for 2–3 weeks, adjust your calories by 100–200. Start from the number in the maintenance calories calculator or the TDEE calculator, then let your own data correct it.

Step 1: Weigh the same way every time

  • In the morning, after the bathroom, before eating or drinking
  • The same scale, on a hard, level floor
  • Similar clothing, or none

Daily weight can swing by a kilogram or more because of water, salt, carbohydrate, digestion and, for women, the menstrual cycle. That is why single weigh-ins mislead.

Step 2: Average each week

Two weeks of weigh-ins (kg)Week 1: 82.4, 82.1, 82.6, 81.9, 82.0, 82.3, 81.8 → average 82.16
Week 2: 81.9, 81.7, 82.2, 81.5, 81.4, 81.8, 81.3 → average 81.69
Change: −0.47 kg. Day 3 of week 2 was higher than day 1 of week 1, but the trend is clearly down.

Step 3: Decide with a simple rule

GoalWhat the 2–3 week trend showsAction
LoseLosing about 0.5–1% of body weight a weekKeep going
LoseLosing faster than about 1% a weekAdd 100–200 calories
LoseNo changeCheck tracking, then cut 100–150 or add walking
MaintainStable within about 0.5 kgYou have found your maintenance
GainGaining about 0.25–0.5% a weekKeep going
GainNo change, or gaining much fasterAdjust by 100–150

Step 4: Keep your food log honest

  • Weigh food for the first few weeks to calibrate your eye.
  • Log cooking oils, sauces, drinks and bites. They add up fast.
  • Log weekends too. Two untracked days can erase a week's deficit.

Step 5: Turn the data into your real TDEE

With 2–3 weeks of food logs and weight averages, you can calculate your true maintenance: average daily calories minus (weekly change in kg × 7,700 ÷ 7). In the example above, if the person averaged 2,300 calories, 0.47 × 7,700 ÷ 7 ≈ 517, so their real TDEE is about 2,817. The full method is in how to find your real maintenance calories.

Track more than weight

Measure your waist every 2–4 weeks, and note how your training is going. If you are lifting and your weight is stable but your waist is shrinking, you are likely losing fat and gaining muscle. You can also re-check body fat with the body fat calculator.

Get your starting number, then refine it.

Open the maintenance calculator

Frequently asked questions

How often should I weigh myself?
Daily weighing, averaged over each week, gives the clearest picture. If daily weighing bothers you, weigh 3–4 times a week at the same time of day and average those.
How long before I adjust my calories?
Give a new target 2–3 weeks. Water shifts can hide real change for a week or more, especially at the start of a diet.
How much should I change my calories by?
Small steps of 100–200 calories. Larger jumps make it hard to tell what worked.
What if my weight goes up one week?
One week up is usually water, salt, carbohydrate, stress, poor sleep or your menstrual cycle. Look at the trend over 2–3 weeks before reacting.

Keep reading

Sources

  1. Hall KD, Sacks G, Chandramohan D, et al. Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight. Lancet. 2011;378(9793):826–837. PubMed 21872751
  2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Losing Weight: gradual, steady weight loss of about 1 to 2 pounds per week. cdc.gov.